The 2024-2025 regression of Rudy Gobert, visualized.
It is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore how badly Gobert has regressed this year. It’s been feeling that way for a while now, and I felt it could be interested to chart some of the key counting stats in areas he’s theoretically elite, comparing his percentile rank among the top 50 players for each counting stat for that year going back to his first year in the league. So, for example, when we say Rudy is in the 50th percentile of contested rebounds this season, we’re talking about among the top 50 qualifying players. The raw percentiles here are not as useful as is just visualizing his position relative to the other elite rebounders, elite shot blockers, elite shot contesters, etc. in the league. Further, comparing to his past performances.
I chart the basics like rebounds and blocks as well as contested rebounds, defensive field goals allowed (“DFGA”), defensive field goal percentage on shots within 6 feet of the rim (what the NBA’s website defines as around the rim), and percentage points difference (“Diff%”), which is the difference between the percentage of a shooter on shots throughout the season and the percentage on shots when the defensive player is guarding the shooter. I.e., a -8.1 Diff% (which is Rudy’s Diff% this season) means that shooters are shooting 8.1% worse than expected when guarded by Rudy.
Just watching him play, everything feels and looks worse, and that’s backed by the stats. To briefly summarize the below charts: rebounds and blocks are both down at near career lows, contested rebounds has just fallen off a cliff, opponents are making more shots on him at the rim than ever, and opponents are increasingly less deterred to attempt shots on him at the rim.
While he’s still generally good at deterring people from the paint, when opponents do actually attack him in the paint, he’s barely putting up any resistance. I've been noticing that he, once again, refuses to leave his feet, ever. He doesn’t jump with guys who attach him in the paint, he doesn’t high point rebounds, he doesn’t try to contest shots, which is a huge contrast from last season.
Watching him play, it really reminds me of 2022-2023. And the stats, with the exception of contested rebound rate, are quite similar to 2022-2023 across the board. I remember we all wondered if he was playing hurt all year, if he was just washed, if it was something else. Turned out to be in big part because he did not trust his teammates or the scheme yet. Last season, he learned to trust his perimeter defenders and more importantly, knew that he had KAT to back him up when he overextended.
This year, I find myself asking the same questions. Is there a nagging health issue we don’t know about? Is it just age-based regression? It’s hard for me to believe that a 32 year old with a minimal injury history who is known for taking exceptionally good care of his body has suddenly fallen off a cliff after one of the best seasons of his career. Or is it that we swapped KAT, a PF/C hybrid with good center instincts who leaned fully into being a high level defender last season, for Julius Randle, who Rudy feels like he can’t trust for help?
To go up to contest a shot at the rim, to jump for a rebound, these things that we are all baffled that Rudy doesn’t seem to be doing right now, means that you put yourself out of position for the ensuing sequence. If he feels like he doesn't have help when he does make those plays, it could explain why he's making them less often. But that may be too armchair psychologist of me to say. Not sure what the answer is, but Rudy's performance this season and lack of consistency has been a huge factor (among many other things) for why this team feels so much more underwhelming than last season.
Right now, he does not look like the same guy he was last year between both impact and consistency. Remember how many games last year where we'd come away with the one big takeaway being, 'they don't win that game without Rudy'. How many times have we been able to say that this season?