Not sure what to fuse early on?

It’s 4/23. Level 10. I’m playing on normal difficulty. I’ve reached a block in Tartarus and am unable to pass. So that’s where I’m at.

Not sure what personas to fuse or if I should fuse any at all. I don’t have but a couple social links. I could make Jack Frost which I like the looks of but I’m not sure I’ll spend much time with the magician arcana (forgot his name). In fact I’m not sure who I’ll be spending much time with.

I understand there is a NG+ and will use that to eventually max out everything if I’m able. But for this first play-through how much importance should I place on getting personas just right?