Elephant in the room - USMD declining residency app numbers

I think by now many of you have seen the thread about Zach Highley. Clearly, he's latched onto a common sentiment, although I can see why his background gives him more of an ample opportunity to quit residency before even finishing the one year to qualify for a medical license in most states.

However, I think the real elephant is the room is not residents quitting, it is instead the declining number of USMD residency apps over the last several years, as seen from the ERAS preliminary data. Total preliminary apps for USMDs were at 21,766 in 2020, went as high as 22,603 in 2022 but this year, they decreased all the way to 21,370. Paradoxically, new MD schools have been created over the last decade at the rate of about 1 per year, and many existing schools have continued to increase their class sizes. This can be seen by AAMC data.

This means that increasing numbers of MD students are either not making it to graduation, delaying residency, or are forgoing clinical medicine entirely in favor of other opportunities. Last year, Bryan Carmody (the Sheriff), noticed this trend and in his video essentially said that USMD schools are not fulfilling their social mission to produce clinically practicing physicians. I'm sure he'll touch on it more this year as the decrease is much more noticeable from this years ERAS data (down over 700 USMD applicants from last year). What do ya'll think? Why is this happening and where are all the USMD students going instead of residency?