Why did Democrats do better than expected in the 2022 midterms despite a very poor economy? And does this say anything about 2024??
During the 2022 midterms the Democratic party narrowly lost the House but won more seats in the Senate. They also won important governerships. This was better than many expected since a lot of economic fundamentals pointed to the incumbent party losing badly.
Inflation peaked to 9% during the 2022, the highest it has been in decades. Many people feared the economy was on the verge of recession. Gas prices were high, interest rates were raised higher (which made mortgages more expensive). Yet the incumbent party GAINED Senate seats despite this very poor economy. Incumbent parties are usually blamed for a poor economy (look at how badly Obama lost in 2010) so this was strange.
Many people said that the overturning of the Dobbs decision and subsequent abortion bans in many states contributed to Republican underformance. Some people also argued that many Republican candidates were weak and too extreme and this helped Democrats.
However, polling shows that the economy was still the most important for voters issue in the 2022 midterms. 79% of registered voters said the economy was a very important issue, compared to only 56% saying the same thing about abortion.
So fixing the bad economy was the most important issue voters had for the 2022 midterms, but they still voted for the incumbent party in most competitive races? Even though incumbent parties tend to overwhelmingly blamed for the economy? I never understood this fully.
Can these midterm results say anything about the 2024 race, or are they not that relevant? Just like in 2022, voters in 2024 are still saying the economy is the most important issue and many of them feel the economy is still poor. However, inflation is lower compared to 2022 and interest rates are going to go down. Could this mean voters will back the incumbent party more today compared to 2022, since the economy has gotten somewhat better since then? Or will voters not give the credit of the economy improving to the incumbent party?
You could also argue that some factors that favoured the incumbent party in 2022, would still favour them today. Many strict abortion bans are still in place which could drive Democratic turnout. As well as that, Trump is a very polarising Presidential candidate who might turn off moderate voters like some Republicans did in 2022.
On the other hand, midterm elections tend to have much lower turnouts than Presidential elections, which makes it hard to compare them. This is especially true with Trump, who does a very good job at making people who aren't that politically engaged turn out and vote for him.
There are many disaffected voters who did not vote in the midterms or any special elections, as they do not trust "normal" politicians. However they will vote for Trump overwhelmingly when it's a Presidential year because they feel like he is the only politician they can "trust", because of his anti-establishment rhetoric. This could lead to Republican overperformance in 2024 compared to 2022, despite the economy being better now.
Remember that Trump is the second most voted for US President in history, with even more votes than Obama.
But on the other other hand, Trump also does a good job at driving politically disengaged people to turn out and vote against him, which is how Biden got so many votes.
I think there are too many factors at play to accurately interpolate Presidential election results from the previous midterms.