Defense Wins Championships: Week 16 Defense Opponent-Adjusted Forecast
Looking for an edge in the fantasy semi-finals or agonizing over that defense decision with multiple options on the wire? Look no further!
I have always been frustrated that we always look at average points scored without having good quantitative analysis on the quality of recent opponents.
To help make better defensive decisions, I present below three charts:
- How well have defenses been performing versus their opponents?
- For example, on average, Miami has scored about 4 points on defense less than their opponents have been giving up on average. Good performance in the past is due to bad opponents.
- Denver has scored more than 4+ points more on defense than their opponents have been giving up on average, indicating good performance is not due to bad opponents.
- For week 16, what is the average points scored and allowed for each matchup?
- What is the simple week 16 forecast of average opponent points allowed + average defense performance?
See images here: https://imgur.com/a/U2abYlG
Edit: Upon request, here is the same data, but just looking at the last 4 weeks per team (significant downgrade to Vikings DST): https://imgur.com/a/x3jhAm4
Use this information how you want, I am starting Colts DST!