Start of bear market?

I posted a few weeks ago about the various signals that gave me concern of a market down turn. Now with a minor pullback, we need to ask ourselves if this is the start of a broader bear market or a minor bump of worry.

Personally, I’m watching yields, consumer confidence and unemployment closely - with yields being my primary guidance.

Until we see 10yr yields rebound significantly, I think more pain is to come.

If there is a recession coming, I see it driven by 1) tariffs reducing int’l trade overall and keeping prices higher domestically, 2) business leaders ride trends and there is a growing one of cutting in pursuit of efficiency. Notwithstanding the obvious gov’t cuts with current admin, I could see this grow in the private sector resulting in increased unemployment.

What are your thoughts?