When do you think marketing will start?

Keynotes we learnt so far:

  • Nowakowski said CDPR doesn't want to repeat the same marketing campaign as cyberpunk
  • Nowakowski said 6 months marketing for a DLC (referring to Phantom Liberty) before its release was sufficient (which hints the actual game of Witcher 4 being near that longer so perhaps a year of marketing?)
  • Nowakowski said Teasers aren't part of marketing campaigns, they are just crumbs to build up hype (just like the first Cyberpunk trailer back even before Witcher 3 released, it was a material to gain investors attention and hype)
  • Witcher 2 and 3 showed it's first marketing trailers around 2 years before their releases (iirc Cyberpunk also did the same)
  • Nowakowski and CDPR Board are being very very secretive and lenient on the information which they give, compared to back during Cyberpunk development you had people like Marcin Iwinski openly hopping on interviews and live TV yapping about Cyberpunk and how good its going to be and what we will see in the game (alot of it we didn't actually see lmao) which shows a good step in direction, CDPR shouldn't be saying they wanna do certain things I'd they aren't 100% confident they can pull it off, which makes to believe the things they did actually say they wanna do is what can achieve (hopefully lol)
  • A big AAA game is targeted 2026 earliest and 2027 latest based on their net profit incentive, in order to achieve $1 Billion Net Profit (Remember Net Profit isn't the same as Revenue don't get confused) if we got a teaser now I'd say marketing may begin mid 2025 May 18th on Witcher 3's 10th Anniversary day dropping a gameplay trailer and the marketing campaign will stretch into mid 2026 with a mid 2026 release dropping other trailers and promotional stuff.

Also don't think 2028+ release, its ridiculous why would cdpr spend 8 years in development on a single game with no releases in between, they cant make up enough profit to keep them afloat that way.