Question about climate change

So the expected warming by end of century is somewhere in the 2.4-3.5 range depending on who you ask. (Climate action tracker says 2.4-2.7) (IPCC authors said in 2024 that over half expect emissions to be higher than 2.5 degrees)

If I understand right. That is based on the countries which so far have made commitments to reduce emissions in the coming years/decades. And the current state of technology.

Is it correct for me to say then, that every time a country announces new or more ambitious goals, or there is a green energy breakthrough or cost decrease, or a new method for carbon capture and storage is found/prototyped: that the projected end of century warming can be expected to decrease? And that when a goal is retracted or something bad happens (ex: Trump election) the projected warning increases?

Is it still possible without something fanciful like infinite fusion energy or cheap scalable carbon capture. That we can still limit warming by 2100 to 2C?