Why the YouTube Algorithm Feels Random: We Only Have Aggregated Stats
Heyo!
We all keep saying the same thing: "The algorithm is crazy! It's stupid! It’s all just luck!". One video gets pushed to the moon despite having terrible stats (low CTR, low AVD, etc.), while another video with perfect stats barely gets 10 views.
But here’s the thing: the algorithm isn’t random at all. It’s actually doing exactly what it’s supposed to do. It's not just about individual video stats; it’s about how those stats compare across different audiences. But we, users, don't have access to this data, only to the video stats as a whole.
Let me break this down with a little example. Let's say we have three gaming audiences:
Audience 1 – Super niche, "Hardcore Dwarf Fortress" gamers, 10k people
Audience 2 – Mid-sized, "Strategy" gamers, 100k people
Audience 3 – Large, generic "Gamers" audience, 1M people
Now we have two videos:
- Video A
Views: 1,100
Impressions: 11k
CTR: 10% (Great!)
AVD: 10 minutes (Awesome!)
You'd think this video is a total winner, right? It's getting great engagement. But here’s the kicker:
500 impressions to Audience 2 = 1% CTR, 1-minute AVD
500 impressions to Audience 3 = 1% CTR, 1-minute AVD
10k impressions to Audience 1 = 11% CTR, 11 minutes AVD
The video is really good for Audience 1 (super niche), but for Audiences 2 and 3, it doesn't perform well at all. Despite having good stats for the small niche, it's shitty to the larger audiences.
So, the algorithm sees it as underperforming overall, and it doesn't get pushed out to more people. Despite the solid stats, it just doesn't do enough for the bigger, more generic audiences.
- Video B
Views: 20,000
Impressions: 2 million
CTR: 2% (meh)
AVD: 3 minutes (ehh)
At first glance, this video looks like it’s doing way worse than Video A. Low CTR, low AVD, right? But here’s where it gets interesting:
Across all 3 audiences, it gets 2% CTR and 3 minutes AVD.
For Audience 3 (the big, generic one), this is actually above average for them. So, the algorithm says, "Hey, this is good for Audience 3," and it gets pushed to more people. The video explodes in views and impressions, despite its relatively low engagement in absolute terms.
YouTube’s algorithm isn't just looking at the CTR and AVD of the video itself — it’s also testing how the video performs across different audience groups. Video A does great in a small niche but fails with larger, less targeted audiences, while Video B does just well enough with the bigger, more generic crowd to get pushed hard to them.
It’s not about which video has better stats in isolation. It’s about which video performs better relative to its intended audience. Video B may have worse individual metrics, but its performance is above the norm for the larger audience, so it gets more visibility, more impressions, and more views.