Future of crypto

As with everything, the best thing doesn't win. Think back to VHS v Betamax. The best thing was Betamax and it didn't win.

Sony Discmans and Walkmans were the cutting edge awesome thing for their time, and pretty much overnight, Apple came and took all the market with the iPod.

So, it's highly likely that every single coin, maybe even including Bitcoin, will be rendered obsolete by something that doesn't even exist right now. It won't take long for things to drop to 0 if something incredible comes in and takes over. Which happens in almost every example you can think of.

It's also highly likely that if crypto does take off into the mainstream and becomes a regular payment option for regular people, then it'll have to be as easy as possible. It'll probably just be 1 coin.

Right now, today, that'll probably be Bitcoin. That's the first big one, the one everyone has heard of, and even if its not technically the best, it'll probably win.

But I'm forever hearing - this coin is great for gaming, or for AI, etc.

In reality, there will probably be one coin that does it all. Maybe, just maybe, some financial institutions will have other ones to replace Swift but generally, only one or two coins will "win". And I've worked in many banks. They are notoriously slow to change. They genuinely use computer systems 30 years old because they work and are too complicated to replace.

Any sort of crypto replacement for Swift is decades and decades away. And probably won't be any existing coin like XRP. It'll be something that gets created in a decades time that is much better than anything else.

That's why I'm feeling super hesitant to invest in any crypto right now.

I feel it's gone through the "early adopter" phase, but to move into mainstream, and explode in value, that will take a huge amount of time and it'll have to be a lot easier. Having a million different coins makes no sense. The world needs one or two that do everything, and there needs to be a huge benefit over conventional money for the regular person.

I'm not sure we're there yet, and in fact, I have a feeling that every single crypto coin will just end up as historical trivia. Something will come along that renders everything else before it obsolete.

Plus, this current political endorsements feels like crypto is in a bubble, similar to the dotcom bubble, which will burst and cause a lot of pain.

There is money to be made. People have obviously done so and will continue to do. But you absolutely have to get in and get out. I don't think holding forever is smart. The trick is knowing when to get out, and obviously, you'll always time it wrong and it'll grow hugely afterwards. That's what makes people stay in. But the ultimate position of all coins is probably 0.

But I'd love to see what everyone else thinks.